The CatholiCity Message
Volume III, Number 30 – November 16, 1999
PART TWO: Special Edition on Y2K
Dear CatholiCity Citizen,
Last week, in Part One of this Special Report on Y2K, we heard from Marcus Grodi and Paul Thigpen. Just one item before we get back to our blue ribbon panel featuring Matt Pinto, Rich Ryan, Dr. Scott Hahn, Chris Ryland, David Palm, and Bud Macfarlane. First, let's all 17,000 of us pray together:
"Dear Father in Heaven, we thank you for our moms, who gave us life and love. Bless our mothers, console our mothers, and keep them healthy and happy. Thank you so much! Amen."
We'll begin Part Two with Chris Ryland.
CHRIS RYLAND ON Y2K
I'll go out on a limb and predict almost exactly what's going to happen. ;-)
None of this is original, but I'm fairly confident that it's incontrovertible. I won't bother to support any of this with argumentation–it's just my best guesstimate from over two years of fairly careful study and thought, and 30+ years of immersion in the computer industry.
1. Y2K will hit immediately with a few, large, "acute" incidents (e.g., some set of non-trivial cities without power for a few days, lots of sewer/water failures, which aren't bad for a day but which can become deadly after a week, etc.).
Then, the "chronic" phase will kick in, with literally millions of point failures (e.g., small businesses unable to bill or collect bills or get supplies, etc.), slowly accelerating into massive economic "friction." We'll see at least a major recession within 6-9 months, which will most likely evolve into a depression after 12-18 months.
Note that this is the "best" case. The worst case is probably the end of civilization as we know it (AKA: the Gary North Scenario), but I really don't expect this.
2. Spiritual preparation is the most critical element, clearly. I heartily recommend a fervent devotion to Saint Joseph (for fathers of families in particular). Saint Joseph is perhaps the most underrated saint of all times–for these troubled times of our collective "flight into Egypt."
After that, we should be physically prepared for at least several months of living without external supplies. (Not that it would be all at once–rather, it'd more likely be a few weeks here and there of unavailability or shortages.) It's somewhat late to start at this point, but I don't expect shortages on Jan 1 unless the acute incidents trigger panics (which is entirely possible). Thus, you should keep preparing through the first months of the year if you can.
I'd also recommend all preparations be made with an eye to taking care of at least another 1-2 families who don't have the means, time, or foresightedness to prepare. The more, the better. (It's too late to do much community-wide consciousness-raising.)
Of course (and this isn't strictly within the parameters of Bud's question), what's *really* needed is for Catholics to take Y2K as a gentle (yes, I mean gentle) wake-up call from God, to arise from the torpor of the consumerist culture of death, and reclaim the culture for Christ.
To that end, I'd require (yes, require) all Catholic families to do the following: FIRST, kill your television and computers (your VCRs, too–no screens), make yourselves familiar with Benedictine life (ora et labora/prayer and work), go to a Tridentine Rite Mass once a month and teach your children how to use the old Missal (and your boys how to serve) and to appreciate the old Mass (as well as the new when done respectfully), read John Senior's "Death of Christian Culture" and "Restoration of Christian Culture" (the latter at least once a year), then read all of Wendell Berry and (secondarily) Neil Postman for the best critiques of our modern (technopolist) culture, and then homeschool your families and yourselves (dads, too–it's not just for moms–in fact, I'd say if the dad isn't heavily involved in the actual learning together (at least for a large family), it can't be done), "squandering" time with your children: read the classics, read Shakespeare with other families on a regular basis ("Shakespeare for life"), make music (learn Gregorian chant, hymns (the 1940 Episcopal Hymnal is about the best there is), renaissance polyphony and Gaelic music), dance (folk dancing), make & eat slow food (no more fast food–the "pornography of food"), garden/farm, raise animals, study the constellations, learn the old crafts (cabinet-making/woodworking, stone masonry, timber framing, etc.). John Senior had it exactly right.
Each of these recommendations would require a whole book to expound, but I'll make 'em anyway and leave it at that. ;-)
Cheers!
(Chris Ryland is the president of Em Software in Steubenville, Ohio)
DR. SCOTT HAHN ON Y2K
I am honored by your request, and intimidated–to be quite frank. Why? Because I don't have a clue. And my opinion about y2k vacillates from day to day. Personally, I'm fasting more and guarding my holy hours a bit more carefully, along with family devotions. I fear that people already take my personal opinions too seriously, so I try to be forthright about my understanding of God's Word, but circumspect and cautious when it comes to sharing opinions on things like y2k, especially when they're in such a state of personal flux.
(Scott Hahn teaches Theology at the University of Steubenville, and is the author, along with his wife Kimberly, of "Rome Sweet Home.")
RICH RYAN ON Y2K
1. What do I think is going to happen as a result of the Y2K problem?
I believe that, even though many organizations have made great progress, Y2K will still cause widespread disruptions. While these disruptions may not be long-lasting; I believe that they will be significant. Our national infrastructure is so interdependent that a breakdown in one system could have severe repercussions throughout many systems, causing even compliant systems to fail. The cold, hard reality is that for many people, because of their failure to make any preparations at all, "disruptions" may mean days–maybe weeks–without access to food, water, or fuel. Unless emergency services can somehow manage a logistical disaster relief feat of unprecedented magnitude, I think we may see hundreds, if not thousands, of fatalities as a result of the Y2K problem.
2. What do you recommend good Catholics to do in terms of preparation?
I think the best thing for a Catholic to do is to make prudent preparations for his family. This means stockpiling enough food, water, fuel and other supplies to sustain his family for up to several weeks. At the same time, a good Catholic should also be prepared for whatever may come, even if Y2K is a complete bust–because, for all we know, we may be facing our judgement tomorrow . "In the morning consider that you may not live till evening, and when evening comes do not dare to promise yourself the dawn. Be always ready, therefore, and so live that death will never take you unprepared" (Thomas a Kempis, The Imitation of Christ). Finally, if at all possible, I think a good Catholic should have some additional supplies on hand to share with his family members and neighbors who have not heeded his advice to prepare. "If anyone does not provide for his relatives, and especially for his immediate family, he has denied the faith and is worse than an unbeliever" (1 Timothy 5:8).
(Rich Ryan is an attorney by profession and works for a very large, global electronics and communications company. His specialty is high-tech transactions and he has been involved in structuring and negotiating software and technology agreements both domestically and internationally.)
DAVID PALM ON Y2K
1. What do I think is going to happen as a result of the Y2K problem?
With Marcus Grodi, I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone, unable to fully separate spin from reality, rumor from fact. Still, given other economic and political instabilities, along with Y2K heaped on top, I still fully expect a full-blown depression. But I think it will be the 'grind' scenario, rather than the 'snap' scenario. The 'snap' scenario might still apply in certain other countries, however.
2. What do you recommend good Catholics to do in terms of preparation?
I have always said, "have enough to make it through the winter." That means clean water, food, heat for one room of the house, and light enough to make it from January till around April, at the very least. Almost anybody could still make those preparations, even at this late hour.
(David Palm graduated with B.S. degrees in Electrical and Computer Engineering from the University of Missouri-Columbia in 1987, has a Masters in New Testament Studies, and entered the Catholic Church in 1994. He works as a software engineer at a Fortune 500 company in embedded controls.)
MATT PINTO ON Y2K
I agree with every word in Dave Palm's two contributions. I'm thoroughly confused by the media spin and have softened up as a result. I'm still forcing myself to prepare and believe we should have reserves for at least a few months. Through recent experiences, I've also come to rely more and more on the spiritual preparations because we don't know how the ripple effect will play out but we do know that God loves us and will guide our ways if we turn to him.
(Matt Pinto is the founder of Ascension Press, author of "Did Adam and Eve Have Belly Buttons," co-founder and president of Envoy Magazine, a moving force behind the Missionaries of Faith Foundation, and a long-time Militia Immaculata member.)
BUD MACFARLANE ON Y2K
What will happen? I don't know. Like Marcus Grodi, I think every scenario from complete infrastructure breakdown to a mild recession is possible. I hope it's the latter.
What should Catholics do? If you've decided that material preparations are prudent, get cracking. From a spiritual point of view, my novel House of Gold says what I wanted to say: no matter what the circumstances of history, all Catholics should be prepared to imitate Christ by carrying the cross on this earth in the hope of resurrection for eternity. But hey, don't just carry the cross: embrace it, love it. It's your gravy train to unimaginable spiritual joy and supernatural riches. Catholic have it easy; we can take our cue from Saint Ignatius of Loyola, who structured his famous retreats upon the four Last Things: Death, Judgement, Heaven, and Hell. From that point of view, even poverty and starvation in this world are not catastrophic compared to meriting eternal damnation in the next. Catholics would be wise to pray and meditate on the Four Last Things in preparation for John Paul II's New Evangelization and the coming Springtime in the Church, when extraordinary oceans of grace will be available to all who ask. If you accept the reality that heaven and hell exist, you will get back up after you fall down and your evangelization efforts will take on a new zeal in the coming months and years. Two quotes:
"Let nothing disturb you. God alone suffices."
Saint Teresa of Avila
"Love God and do as you will."
Saint Augustine of Hippo
(Bud Macfarlane, a graduate of the University of Notre Dame, has been a national marketing director for two manufacturing companies, is the author three bestselling Catholic novels, is executive director of the Mary Foundation, is a co-founder of the Catholic Marketing Network, and an active member of the Militia Immaculata.)
Have a happy and holy Thanksgiving. God bless us everyone!
Yours in Christ,
Your Friends at CatholiCity
